Fantasy Movie League Su15 Wk 9 Picks

This week, picking looks to be a little easier with what appears to be the tremendously undervalued “Trainwreck”, priced at FB$152 despite estimates of a $30M opening weekend, putting it at Estimated Gross Box Office $ Per $FB of 197.4.  That’s easily highest of the week and given that some brilliant writer thought, “What if I wrote a ‘When Harry Met Sally’-esque chick flick but cast Lebron James in Bruno Kirby’s part as the guy best friend?” it has good upside potential since it has something for everyone potentially interested in an R-rated comedy.

With the combination of films at our disposal this week, there are 3759 valid combinations.  Given the huge value of “Trainwreck”, my nerdy bin packing Monte Carlo simulator didn’t see any top rated combinations where using “Ant-Man” (FB$473) or even last week’s box office winner “Minions” (FB$450) at all.  In fact, all top 18 selections of mine involve 6x “Trainwreck”.  From there, you’re really just nuancing to fill in the remaining FB$88 across two slots that leaves you.

Here are my picks this week:

1) Both “Jurassic World” (FB$69) and “Inside Out” (FB$63) fit nicely in that remaining FB$88.  For my top pick, “Jurassic World” has been declining more slowly so it gets the slot here.  I would usually hate to put in a movie as poorly reviewed as “Ted 2” (FB$18) but with the remaining FB$19 it’ll likely do better than something like “San Andreas” (FB$5) or even “Spy” (FB$12).

Summer15Week9Pick1

2) If you really hate putting bad movies in your lineup, forget that last sentence and go with “Spy” in that last slot. Summer15Week9Pick2

3) If you think “Inside Out” will slide less than “Jurassic Park”, despite a second week of “Minions”, try this instead.

Summer15Week9Pick3

Wildcard) If you don’t want to go all in on “Trainwreck”, here’s the best lineup my analysis came up with that includes “Minions”:

Summer15Week9PickWC

Happy movie going!

4 thoughts on “Fantasy Movie League Su15 Wk 9 Picks

  1. Stumbled upon your blog. I am also now obsessed with fantasy movie league. I have got my whole family to sign up and we all play against each other. It is fun and all we talk about. We check predictions, how the weekend numbers are going and talking trash when someone picks a weird movie lineup.

    I would love to hear what your simulator has for this week and what you think will happen. It is a tough call because not one movie should blow the others out of the water. I have found that a combo of Minions/Trainwreck will get the most.

    Cheers

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    1. Hi Sean, thanks so much for your thoughts. I’m still waiting on some updated estimates from ProBoxOffice.com today, but there’s an interesting choice to make at the top of the lineup this week that hinges on what you think of Adam Sandler movies 8).

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  2. I stumbled upon your blog and love fantasy movie league.

    I got all of my family to sign up and we are getting really competitive. I would love to hear what your simulator thinks will do well this week. I have it as 3 Minions/4 Trainwrecks as the main lineup that can be the best, especially considering the value.

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    1. Hi Mavsman, I’m so glad you and your family are having as much fun as I am. My 13 year old daughter and I are in a league together and having a good time. I’ll be posting another article as soon as ProBoxOffice.com releases their estimates for the week. The Pixels vs Paper Towns battle for Best Performer will loom large based on my early work this week.

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