Fantasy Movie League Su15 Wk10 Recap

Week 10 of the Fantasy Movie League Summer 2015 season offered big surprises, minor surprises, and non-surprises. Given its horrible reviews I don’t think anyone is surprised that the value in “Pixels” took the huge tumble it did, going from a projection of $54M less than two weeks ago to $24M in actual weekend revenue.

I was a little surprised that “Minions” underperformed, though. After falling off 59% the week before but being shown in more theaters than any other movie this week, I expected a better rebound than the 53% fall to $22.9M it saw over the weekend. That hurt my pick this week, which included “Minions” x6, from doing better.  It was still in the top 10% of overall picks but, largely due to the bonus for Best Performer going elsewhere, it was $30M less than the best possible play.

That leads me to the big surprise of the weekend: “Southpaw”.  Despite being a Weinstein Company drama debuting seemingly out of place in the middle of the summer instead of core Oscar season in the fall, the Jake Gyllenhaal boxing movie outperformed estimates and brought in $16.7M. At a cost of FB$88 that easily made it the Best Performer and the anchor of the perfect score this week:


Looking back on Week 10 analysis

Going into last week, based on FB$ pricing and the Wednesday estimates, the race for Best Performer was a crowded one:

  • “Minions”: 159.34
  • “Southpaw”: 159.09
  • “Inside Out”: 159.18
  • “Jurassic World”: 159.57
  • “Magic Mike XXL”: 157.14

In my analysis of Week 9, I took into account scenarios where “Minions” didn’t fare so well, but what I failed to take into account (and what I’ll be editing into my nerdy bin packing Monte Carlo simulator this week) were situations where “Southpaw” (or other Best Performer candidates) exceeded expectations. You can’t pick correctly every week, but with some tweaks I think my software will help consider a broader set of alternatives.

Looking ahead to Week 11

This week, Tom Cruise is back with the latest installment of the “Mission Impossible” series and Ed Helms stars in the “Vacation” reboot-esque sequel as Rusty Griswold. If you take a 50% decline in each movie from last week as a thumbnail and use two different estimates for the new films since didn’t include “Vacation” in its long range estimates last week (this past week for “Mission Impossible” and the week before that for “Vacation”), you get a rough picture of Best Performer:

  • “Vacation”: 156.98
  • “Mission Impossible”: 144.58
  • “Pixels”: 142.86
  • “Paper Towns”: 138.04
  • “Ant-Man”: 133.87
  • “Minions”: 133.14
  • “Terminator Genisys”: 133.33

Keep in mind, though, that a lot can happen as reviews roll in and estimates change. “Pixels” showed us this last week and I’ll provide more in-depth analysis after the Wednesday estimates come in.

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