Fantasy Movie League Su15 Wk 11 Picks

Week 11 of the Fantasy Movie League Summer 2015 season brings Tom Cruise and Rusty Griswold back into our lives in the forms of “Mission Impossible – Rogue Nation” and “Vacation”, respectively. The two new films this week have had very different reviews according to Rotten Tomatoes and have very different box office projections from our friends at ProBoxOffice.com this week as well. My nerdy bin packing Monte Carlo simulator saw some tweaks this week after doing fair, but not spectacular last week. It found 435,024 different legal submissions this week with 4,034 valid ones. In an attempt to pare that down into a manageable number to choose among, an analysis of Best Performer is the place to start.

Best Performer Analysis

This week I took a much closer look at how realistic those ProBoxOffice.com projections are for this weekend. If you take them at face value, here are the top candidates for Best Performer and the $2M bonus that comes with it:

Movie (est Rev, FB$) EstBP
“Minions” ($12700K, FB$86 %drop -44.54) 147.67
“Ant-Man” ($13700K, FB$93 %drop -44.98) 147.31
“Jurassic World” ($4700K, FB$32 %drop -33.80) 146.88
“Southpaw” ($9300K, FB$66 %drop -44.31) 140.91

The first column describes each film, its ProBoxOffice.com projection, its FML Bux cost, and the percentage ProBoxOffice.com assumes it will drop this weekend compared to last weekend. The second column is the estimated Best Performer score for each film (projection in thousands divided by FB$).

If you believe ProBoxOffice.com’s projections, “Minions” will only drop 44.54% this week post a Best Performer score of 147.67. What is curious there, however, is the notion that “Minions” will only drop 44.54% when in the past two weeks, according to the FML Research Vault, it has dropped an average of roughly 55%. Why should it do so much better this week compared to previous ones? Similar cases can be made for most other films as well.

Southpaw’s 44.32% drop seems more reasonable than the other three on this table since it did so well last week and doesn’t have any dramatic competitors, so if you keep it constant but change the others based on:

  • Minions from 45% to roughly 55% drop off, the average of the last two weeks
  • Ant-Man from 45% to roughly 48% drop off, Marvel second week typical drop according to FML
  • Jurassic World from 33% to roughly 37% drop off, the average of the last two weeks

That leaves you with a new table:

Movie (est Rev, FB$) EstBP
“Southpaw” ($9300K, FB$66 %drop -44.31) 140.91
“Ant-Man” ($13000K, FB$93 %drop -47.79) 139.78
“Jurassic World” ($4470K, FB$32 %drop -37.04) 139.69
“Minions” ($10300K, FB$86 %drop -55.02) 119.77

I’m basing my picks this week off of those variations (and one more for the
Wild Card, sort of).

My Fantasy Movie League Picks, Week 11

1) If you accept my adjustments to the ProBoxOffice.com estimates, the Best Performer bonus goes to “Southpaw” and the best lineup (which hedges a little on “Ant-Man” being Best Performer) is:

Summer15Week11Pick1

2) If you want to maximize “Southpaw” more you can do so, but you have to take on the poorly reviewed “Vacation” to make the best use of your FB$1000:

Summer15Week11Pick2

3) If you think my adjustments are idiotic, then the best score assuming the ProBoxOffice.com estimates are solid maximizes what would be the Best Performer, “Minions”:

Summer15Week11Pick3

Wild Card) Typically I’d put a choice here that is very different at the top of the lineup compared to other choices, but no matter how you slice it, “Mission Impossible” is part of any of these combinations. Even if you think it will drop from its projected $57M all the way down to $40M, the best score remains one of the combinations above, so no Wild Card this week.

We’ll see how those adjustments I made play out. Happy movie going!

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