Fantasy Movie League Su15 Wk12 Recap

Last week over at, Alex Pappademas speculated that, should it not do well, this might be the last “Fantastic Four” film.  Um, this might be the last “Fantastic Four” film.

With a weekend forecast at $43M, the reboot of “Fantastic Four” proceeded to bring in less than $26M after a week of simply terrible reviews.  I’m binge watching the TV version of “Parenthood” right now and just had a big dose of the likable and talented Michael B. Jordan before (spoiler alert) Alex broke up with Haddie so I was completely on board with the idea of him as The Human Torch.  Ditto Kate Mara and the masses like me who loved her on the first season of “House of Cards.”  As a Theatre Dad, anybody with a BFA from Tisch gets my respect, “Divergent” minor antagonist Miles Teller.

But some things aren’t meant to be, so the ageless Tom Cruise and “Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation” held the #1 spot at the box office this past weekend, taking in $28.5M.  Combine that with a better than expected SFX Entertainment debut of “The Gift” and the top combination this week was not only the one I selected (after a bug fix), but was also the most popular according to @fml_movies:


With only three weeks left in the Summer 15 Fantasy Movie League season, in order to move up in the standings you might have to take some chances but this week wasn’t a good week to try to do that with the value potential of “The Gift”.  After a couple of shaky weeks, I was able to move up one slot to 11 in the Rich Eisen league and am now sitting atop the group of folks that joined FML Week 6.

Comparator Improvements

Over the weekend not only did I see “Paper Towns’ at the behest of my 13 year old (she loved the book, disliked the movie), I was busy making improvements to my nerdy bin packing estimate comparator.  First up, a wider +/- on the estimate sliders, based on this feedback:

Jason was completely right so I will be setting the spread at +/- 40% this week to be in concert with the swings of “Fantastic Four” and “The Gift” over the weekend compared to forecasts.  There will be more tick marks between extremes so that you can be more precise with your guesses.

The other improvement came with the way I’m managing memory for the number of combinations the comparator can keep track of and score at once.  The limitation last week as 6,000 combinations but with the changes I just made it can now support close to 25,000 combinations (nerd alert: previously I stored the combinations as a list of integers, now I store them as a single, 8 character string and that made a huge difference in the memory footprint).  So for this next week, you’ll have at your disposal any combination that costs more than FB$900, which should keep possible winners from slipping through the cracks.

Looking ahead to Week 13

New this week are the N.W.A. biopic “Straight Outta Compton” and the ’60s spy adventure “The Man from U.N.C.L.E”. I’m a little skeptical about the latter given the success of competition in the form of “Mission Impossible” and the trend that, despite how nice and talented a guy Henry Cavill seems to be, when you play Superman (George Reeeves, Christopher Reeve, Brandon Routh) the public tends to see you only as Superman the rest of your career.

Again this week, there aren’t many choices at the bottom, with only “Jurassic World” available below FB$16. projections will come out on Wednesday and when they do, I’ll update with the data for this week and publish another article analyzing Week 13 shortly thereafter here.

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