UPDATE as of 9:31a PST AT THE END
Week 13 offers a pair of very different new movies for FML players to choose from. In “The Man from U.N.C.L.E.” we are presented with an old-TV-spy-show-turned-movie that tries to compete an already established old-TV-spy-show-turned-movie-franchise, “Mission Impossible”. Contrast that with the long awaited “Straight Outta Compton”. When N.W.A. burst onto the scene in 1988, the year I graduated high school, they took on the establishment in a way that few had before. Seeing that story now told as a major studio biopic is a little surreal for someone my age. BoxOfficeGuy captured the plusses and minuses for this film nicely in his article this week and it could be a very big deal.
Best Performer Analysis
There are a couple of tricky things at play this week that involve “Straight Outta Compton”, “Ricky and the Flash”, and “Jurassic World”. If you think ProBoxOffice.com is right with their forecast this week, here’s how the Best Performer comparison stack up:
There are a couple of key pieces of data there. According to ProBoxOffice.com, “Ricki and the Flash” will only drop 31.43% from last week. If you look at the Fantasy Movie League Research Vault for Box Office, that’s a smaller drop than any movie currently being tracked has dropped in any week. The previous smallest drop was in Week 10 when “Inside Out” dropped 35.8%. I’m sure there’s some Meryl Streep factor in the ProBoxOffice.com logic, but it makes me nervous.
Similarly, as recently as last weeks ProBoxOffice.com long range report “Straight Outta Compton” was tracking at $47M instead of their final forecast of $55M, a 17% bump over a week of predictions. That too makes me nervous.
Finally, each week I have to come up with my own estimates for the bottom five movies FML puts at our disposal because ProBoxOffice.com only does a top 10 forecast. The rule of thumb I use there is to drop 50%. Normally that doesn’t come into play, but this week it might with respect to “Jurassic World”. It’s best drop the last three weeks was 37.3% and if the other two movies discussed above don’t meet their forecasts, it opens the door for “Jurassic World” to potentially over-perform. If you look at the full default Best Comparator table on compare.fmlnerd.com, there aren’t many other candidates to jump up and do better than their forecasts, falling off less than expected.
With all that in mind, here’s a scenario where “Jurassic World” gets Best Performer:
One correction from earlier in the week. I was unable to get my nerdy bin packing comparator to scale up to consider 24,000 combinations as planned, so until I get that cracked it consists of 6,000. It does have more degree of freedom on the estimators, though. Feel free to play around with it yourself:
Fantasy Movie League Week 13 Picks
Even if it drops to the long range forecast of $47M, the top combinations all contain 2x “Straight Outta Compton”, so all my my picks below do as well. The decision you have to make is whether or not you are comfortable with an empty screen in order to get more “Ricki and the Flash” in your combinations this week.
1 – I’m not comfortable with that given that 31.48% predicted drop. If you mess around with the sliders enough, 3x “Ricki and the Flash” is still a good play down to a 38% drop, so I’m going with:
2 – If, however, you believe in the staying power of Meryl Streep and that 32.48% predicted drop is reasonable, the best combination given the ProBoxOffice.com forecast (despite the $2M penalty for only using 7 screens) is:
3 – If you don’t believe in Meryl Streep and are convinced “Straight Outta Compton” is destined for Best Performer, you might consider:
See the comments below. Clearly, I’m still not figuring all the combinations correctly and the 6,000 limitation is letting items slip through the cracks. That’ll be my weekend project and thanks to those who continually help make this better!