Fantasy Movie League Su15 Wk13 Recap

This week, either you believed in “Straight Outta Compton” and you gained in your league or you didn’t and you fell.  As I analyzed last week, even if it had only produced $47M 2x “Straight Outta Compton” was the smart play at the top of your lineup for Week 13 and it delivered $60M leaving those of us who chose it rejoicing.  As it turned out, there were lots of combinations beyond those first two slots that did well but if you instead went all in on “Mission Impossible” you probably are face palming today.

The best possible combination, ended up being:


While I missed on the bottom of the lineup, I was within $450K of the perfect week so my combination was good enough to stay atop the Opened Week 6  league and to move up a slot back to the first page of the Rich Eisen league as well.  My dreams of winning the latter are likely out of reach at this point, but a top five finish would be pretty satisfying after a couple of dismal showings a few weeks ago.

Comparator Improvements

While my nerdy bin packing estimate comparator did a good job identifying combinations at the top of the lineup, it didn’t do quite as well at the bottom.  The reasons for this can be traced to memory consumption.  Javascript that runs in your browser is only allowed to use so much  memory on your local system, primarily as a security measure.  As a result of this, the comparator only uses 6,000 combinations in its analysis and clearly that’s not enough to find all the possible variations at the bottom of the lineup each week.

What I have planned is to overcome this is to build a small server program that will run elsewhere and be able to analyze a much larger number of combinations quickly without the memory constraints of doing it in the browser.  Each time you change a slider, the Javascript in the browser will make a call back to this small server program and show the top 25 results as it does now, but from a much larger candidate pool.

Life intervenes this week while I run a sales meeting so I won’t have time for that big change yet.  What I will have time for is a tweak that has to do with the five movies that don’t make it into the, estimates which I’ll now assume will drop 40% instead of 50%.  That should qualify more of them in the candidate pool of 6,000.  Last week, for example, more candidates utilizing “Inside Out” would have qualified.  I’ll also change the sliders from their current +/- 40% swing to a +/- 50% swing.

Looking ahead to Week 14

With schools back in session across much of the country this week, “Straight Outta Compton” is the last release that should take in more than $20M in an opening weekend until well after Labor Day when the next “Maze Runner” film releases in mid September.  The interesting phenomenon to observe will be how the N.W.A. biopic falls over time given that most of their hard core fans went and saw their film opening weekend.  How that compares to the staying power of the ageless Tom Cruise will dictate the final two weeks of the Summer ’15 Fantasy Movie League season.  Like recent weeks, smaller selections are slim with nothing available for Week 14 below FB$16, making empty screens a realistic possibility again.

Watch this space or follow me on Twitter (@nerdguru) for when the comparator gets updated on Wednesday.

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