UPDATE 9/3 ~5pm Pacific, see below.
In case you missed it, during the final week of the Summer 2015 season, Fantasy Movie League posted a series of announcements on the forums, among which included some new scoring rules for the Fall 2015 season. The two changes are:
- Best Performer bonus is now $3M per screen, up from the previous $2M per screen
- A new Perfect Lineup bonus grants an additional $10M
These two changes sparked immediate debate on what impact they will have on the way FML is played. I thought it would be interesting to go back and track two top players in the Summer 2015 season and how their battle for the top spot would have played out using the Fall 2015 scoring system.
Why should you care?
By looking at how the new scoring system might have changed the final standings of the previous season, some insights are gained in how it will impact play.
Where’d I get my data?
Sleestak and Glacier were the top two players for the Summer 2015 season going into the final week so all I did was look at their choices and subsequent scores going back to the start of Week 7. I then applied the new Fall scoring system to that eight week sample.
What were my findings?
The payoff for being correct about Best Performer is now bigger and becomes bigger still since they are likely contributors to the Perfect Combination bonus. In fact, all the Perfect Combination for all 15 weeks of the just concluded Summer season included Best Performer every time.
So what would have happened to Sleestak and Glacier? Here’s a table that breaks down the differences:
|Week||Glacier Summer Rules||Sleestak Summer Rules||Difference||Glacier Fall Rules||Sleestak Fall Rules||Difference|
The first two columns show how their scores changed week to week under the original Summer season rules while the third column shows the difference between their scores each week. Negative numbers mean that Glacier trailed Sleestak while positive numbers mean the other way around. Using this method, Glacier didn’t overtake Sleestak until Week 14. The fourth and fifth columns show how their scores would have changed had the Fall scoring rules been in place with the sixth column demonstrating the differences in their scores.
Glacier had more Best Performer selections in his mix throughout the eight week sample and, using the Fall scoring method, would have overtaken Sleestak in Week 10. Graphically, the differences in the scoring systems looks like this:
Sleestak would have fallen behind sooner, but would have had bigger opportunities to make up ground. Instead of going with a more popular lineup that included “War Room” during Week 15, Sleestak went contrarian and took a chance to catch up. Unfortunately, “No Escape” didn’t out perform “War Room” leaving Sleestak to fall to 7th overall.
Clearly, the new scoring system will have a big influence on how this game is played. Best Performer identification was important before, but becomes even more important now. Lead changes in leagues should become more frequent and comeback potential is large because of the big Perfect Combination bonus, meaning that even the bottom feeders in your league have a chance to make a run at the top spot.
9/3 ~5pm Update
A commenter over on the FML cross post of this article wondered out loud how the scores compared if you took out all the bonuses. With that in mind, I created this:
|Glacier Raw Score||Glacier Summer Bonuses||Glacier Fall Bonuses||Sleestak Raw Score||Sleestak Summer Bonuses||Sleestak Fall Bonuses|
And if you take the deltas of the three different scoring methods you get this:
|Diff No Bonuses||$27,927,858|
|Diff Summer Bonuses||$51,927,858|
|Diff Fall Bonuses||$73,927,858|
Bigger bonuses mean bigger swings. As I wrote in my reply to the original comment, I like to think that cuts both ways. The bigger bonuses mean you can get further ahead, but they also mean you can come from further behind.