Fantasy Movie League Fa15 Wk4 Picks

UPDATE 9/25 ~8:40a BELOW

Adam Sandler takes his second at bat in the 2015 movie year with “Hotel Transylvania 2”, debuting this weekend along with the Robert Di Nero/Anne Hathaway comedy “The Intern” and the giving-me-the-willies-looking-at-the-movie-posters “The Green Inferno”.  As we’ll see in a moment, your eyes should be tightly focused on a film that opened in limited release last week and has a wider release this weekend, “Everest”.

Estimate Comparator Improvements

Special thanks to Sad Robot and Buttefield 8 for their suggestions.  The Estimate Comparator (http://compare.fmlnerd.com/) now has a text box field you can use to enter custom amounts instead of relying exclusively on the sliders and I’ll be updating it with some default values on Mondays instead of making people wait for the ProBoxOffice.com Weekdend Forecast on Wednesdays so that folks that like to do their own estimations can cut down on the math involved in determining combinations.  Note that until Wednesday, though, the 50,000 combination limit will be a bigger deal when it comes to missing possible viable combinations so use with caution.

Combinations Worth Considering

As an extension of last week, I’m going to propose combinations here according to how you feel about certain films.  In particular, much of the week comes down to how you feel about the relative merits of “Everest” versus “The Intern”.

If nothing extraordinary happens, that is all films come in at between -20% and +10% of their forecasts as roughly 75% of films in my study of the Summer season did, the safest combinations involve 3x “Everest” with it achieving Best Performer:

Fall15Week4Pick0

Fall15Week4Pick1

Fall15Week4Pick2

Fall15Week4Pick3

“Everest” exceeded expectations in its limited release last week, has very good reviews, and an outstanding cast.  In my variation simulations, the four combinations listed above accounted for 57.16% of the wins.

Don’t discount “The Intern”, though, if for no other reason that it has two stars that people come out to see regardless of the film genre.  If “Everest” is closer to being off by -20%, then “The Intern” has a chance at Best Performer, making these combinations attractive:

Fall15Week4Pick4

Fall15Week4Pick5

These two won in 6.45% of the variation simulations I played out.

As of this writing, there are no Rotten Tomatoes reviews for “Hotel Transylvania 2”, which doesn’t bode well for it.  But suppose something extraordinary happens and it has a huge weekend, up to $41M and “Everest” falls as described before. In that unlikely scenario, this might be worth a play:

Fall15Week4Pick6

Thursday Numbers Worth Noting

“Everest” premiered last week, so it won’t get Thursday numbers reporting, but “The Intern” will.  Using the 5%/8% rule, look for “The Intern” to earn between $1.35M and $2.16M.  If it is on the high side or exceeds that range and you have a bad feeling about “Everest”, let that guide your choices.

UPDATE 9/25 ~8:40a

Thursday numbers for “The Intern” are being reported as $650K, which seem unusually low to me.  There’s no mention of the screen counts in the reports relative to what they will be starting today, so that isn’t a definitive guide either way.

I don’t feel great about this and despite what some have called too high a forecast for it, I’m going to bank on “Everest”.  It has better reviews, exceeded expectations on its opening, and now has an expanded screen count.   There’s more upside there than for “The Intern” although I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned out the other way around.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s