Fantasy Movie League Fall ’15 Week 8 Picks

The bad-80s-cartoon-tv-show-turned-live-action-movie trend continues this week with “Jem and the Holograms” while “Thundarr the Barbarian” stands in a corner by himself somewhere and the unintentional comedy potential of a time traveling Fonzie (and a semi-anthropomorphic dog named Mr. Cool) remains completely untapped. Alas, the FML statisticians mock us all by putting the latest in this bizarre genre in play for Best Performer for this week.

Week 8 Perfect Combo Probabilities

The primer for the methodology involved in producing the graph below was covered last week.  The only changes come from some data research I’ll be publishing next week whose short version is that Showbuzzdaily does a slightly better job at forecasting new releases than ProBoxOffice.com but the two of them averaged together do better for returning films.

With that in mind, the FML Comparator has been loaded with data such that the new films just use Showbuzzdaily. The six returning films forecasted by both use the average between the two. The four unforecasted films use the average value (forecast/FB$) for the other 11 films ($60,685) multiplied by their FB$.  I ran those forecasts through my variance simulator, which I dialed down to +/-10% and show why next week.  Here are the results:

Week 8 Probabilities

Combinations with 4x “Jem and the Holograms” show up most often as do those involving at least 3x “Bridge of Spies” or as many as 6x of the Tom Hanks film in the event of a “Jem” failure.  Should “Bridge of Spies” bring in $10.2M, the inflection point for “Jem and the Holograms” is at $4.25M, inconveniently above the $3.8M ProBoxOffice.com forecast but below the $4.8M Showbuzzdaily forecast making selections difficult.  For what it’s worth, the Deadline forecast is closer to the Showbuzzdaily number.  Whether you buy or sell on “Jem and the Holograms” will shape your choice.

The data article from this week that examined forecasted versus actual Best Performers revealed that most of the time a Best Performer comes from the top four candidates.  So, more extraordinary outcomes would involve “Paranormal Activity” or “Hotel Transylvania 2”.  3x “Paranormal Activity” combinations begin to make sense if it can get up to $12.4M and the same can be said if “Jem” fails and “Hotel Transylvania 2” can get up into the $9M range.

Do you place your faith in a bad-cartoon-turned-live-action film, Tom Hanks, or Halloween friendly movies?

If only you had Mr. Cool and his time machine to help you decide.

2 thoughts on “Fantasy Movie League Fall ’15 Week 8 Picks

  1. I have two suggestions, one for a weekly part of the article and one for a future article.

    For the weekly part of the article, I think it would be a good idea to recap where the actual Perfect Cineplex ended up in your rankings the previous week. For example, saying in next week’s article that the #3 combination the chart above, 7 Bridge of Spies and 1 Woodlawn (if that ends up actually finishing first) was the Perfect Cineplex that week. It might be interesting if one of the choices much further down your list actually ends up being the winner (1 Goosebumps, 3 Martian and 4 Woodlawn or 4 Martian and 4 Woodlawn are contenders this weekend if Woodlawn takes Best Performer).

    For the future article, I’m suggesting finding out if there is a correlation between a movie’s RottenTomatoes.com rating (both the TomatoMeter and the Audience Score) and its decrease in box office in Week 2 and beyond.

    Let me know what you think, and thanks for the site.

    Like

    1. I like the recap idea, definitely. I’ll start that next week.

      As for RottenTomatoes, I’ll add that to my list for the data articles. I may not get to it for a little while, though, but that’s an awesome idea too.

      Like

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