This is the third and final installment of a series examining the Fall accuracy of popular professional box office forecasts. Previously, I covered ProBoxOffice.com and ShowBuzDaily and selected BoxOfficeMojo last. Why? Their forecasts usually get published on Thursdays, which doesn’t help me for the purposes of my weekly picks articles because those have to be written Wednesday evening in order to run on the main Fantasy Movie League site on Thursday.
Why should you care?
Professional forecasts are helpful when compiling lineup possibilities each week of the Fantasy Movie League season. Understanding the limitations of those forecasts is important.
Where’d I get my data?
BoxOfficeMojo forecasts and actuals for the first six weeks of the Fall FML season.
What were my findings?
Here’s the graph for BoxOfficeMojo:
For new films, BoxOfficeMojo is about as accurate as ProBoxOffice.com but not as good as ShowBuzzDaily. For other weeks of release, the hit rate is closer to 65% where the other two sources are closer to 75% but the variance is about the same.
Make of this what you will, but I plan on still using a combination of ProBoxOffice.com and ShowBuzzDaily data for my main forecast model. Their publishing consistency and timing is more conducive to my needs and, together, their accuracy improves upon their individual use. BoxOfficeMojo, however, can still be useful as a sanity check. My forecast modeling has evolved to reducing the weekly screen combination possibilities to a top 10 and choosing among them based on the potential outcomes of the top 4 Best Performer candidates. Box OfficeMojo can be used as a Thursday influencer in making those final choices, especially in cases where their numbers differ from the other two.