Data Deep Dive: 2 Weeks Left, Who Can Still Win the Fall Season?

Among folks active in the forums and the comments, the general consensus on my article last week on this topic was, “Great idea, but your delta number sucks.”  Point taken.  I used the average of the 5th best pick each of the first 8 weeks of the Fall season to determine a delta between a successful and unsuccessful pick for the remaining three weeks and admitted that choice of 5th best was admittedly arbitrary.

Although Billion Dollar Cineplex came up with some math in a comment on my blog to support the roughly $13M and change I used last week, Multiplex 37 came up with an alternative in a forums thread (response #8):

So far this season, the average Perfect Cinema included 5.4 Best Performer screens. If you assume that a player doesn’t play the Best Performer, then they lose (or gain in the reverse)

5.4 x $3,000,000
PC = $10,000,000
TOTAL = $26.2 million

Add in another $1.8 million for raw box office, and the swing would be around $28.0 million in the best/worse case scenario on a weekly basis.

OK, I’ll play along and compare that number to mine this week.

Why should you care?

You, like me sitting in 256th place, might be playing for pride at this point in the overall Fall season standings. Or are you?

Where’d I get my data?

Same as last week.

What were my findings?

Last week, based on my $13.4M weekly delta number, I concluded that the top 30 still had a chance to win.  Here’s how that top 30 did this past weekend (view full size):

Week12 Top 30

 

Pauly P dropped the most out of the top 30 with what looks like a mistaken entry of only 3x “Peanuts” for $62M while tnholler’s Cineplex jumped the most, up from 22nd to 6th with a $104M week.

Using Multiplex 37’s $28M x 2 number, Marebare Stare’s Lair has a shot at the title from the 68th slot right now but if you use my $13.4M x 2 number it’s more like F.L.I.C.K (Fortune Lies In Cinematic Knowledge) at #16.

If you look closely at that top 30, the one player jumped 18 slots, another jumped 8 slots, and two others jumped 4.  All but one of those best jumpers took advantage of what was clearly an incomplete entry above them.  While I respect M37’s math skills and I loved the line of reasoning on this particular topic, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that someone jumping 8 slots twice seems a lot more realistic than someone jumping 33 slots twice among the top players.  It’s not like I’ve never been wrong before, though, so let’s see how that plays out a week from now.

 

One thought on “Data Deep Dive: 2 Weeks Left, Who Can Still Win the Fall Season?

  1. See comment #31 in the same thread for a example of how an unlikely BP winner can cause a huge jump.

    Use the specific example of tnholler, and say he had been in 60th place entering the past weekend. At the moment, the difference between #22 and #60 is roughly $20.5 million, so subtract that from his current total, and instead of jumping from 22 to 6, he would have gone from 60 to (coincidentally) #22, and be $31.9 million behind the leader with 2 weeks to play. Still unlikely for him/her to catch all the way, but plausible, and that’s starting well outside the top 30 prior to week #10.

    Like

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