Fall Recap, Awards Preview

Congratulations to House of M who after a long, hard fought Fall Season emerged as the Fantasy Movie League champion! Aurelia Cineplex was a close second, let’s look at how each of them traversed through the season.

Fall Top 2 Weekly Rank

Notice how they took very different roads to get into contention. House of M scored a Perfect Combination during Week 1 and never got any lower than 51st overall. By contrast, Aurelia was in 265th place in Week 2 and still pretty far back in 261st in Week 3 before getting into contention. Third placed Maze’s Movie Minute followed a trajectory similar to House of M. I have incomplete data there, but Maze’s Movie Minute was as afar back as 264th before surging into the top 15 for good in Week 5.

New Scoring for Awards Season

Clearly taking thoughts in the Chatter to heart, FML Quality Assurance announced on Saturday that scoring would change for Awards Season.  Best Performer bonuses are now back to their Summer Season value of $2M per screen but Perfect Combination bonuses have been halved down to $5M.

Had these rules been in effect for the Fall Season, the ending would have been closer:

Awards Scoring Fall Standings

Here, new scoring impact on the Fall Season top 10 is shown with the Fall Score in the second column followed by the number of perfect combinations each player had throughout the Fall Season.  The fourth column shows the number of Best Performer screens each player had throughout the season followed by what their overall score would have been had Awards Season scoring been in effect.  The overall winner remains House of M but there is shuffling among the other players as well as a much closer second place finisher.

The other interesting item to note here is that over the 13 week season, the top 10 players averaged 3.8 (29.2% of the time) Perfect Combinations and 42.6 Best Performers (3.3 per week).  So if you fall behind early in the Awards Season, there is precedent for being out of the top 250 in the first three weeks and sill making a run at the top spot.  Get three Perfect Combinations over the 12 week Awards Season and you give yourself a chance as well.

Awards Season Notables

The biggest film by far in the queue for Awards Season is “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”, which will likely be broken up into multiple days the same way “Mockingjay: Part 2” was recently.  Unlike “Mockingjay” however, which had comparables in its immediate predecessors that came out the same weekend in prior years, there is no precedent for what will happen in Week 3 of Awards season.  Consider:

  • No previous Star Wars film has opened in December.
  • No previous Star Wars film has opened on a Friday.
  • No previous Star Wars film has opened in more than 3661 theaters.
  • Unprecedented online presales might even sell out the entire weekend, certainly IMAX showings, before Thursday previews.

A slate of others roll out in January, including “Ride Along 2” as the only film in that time frame expected to challenge $50M.  The Awards Season concludes on Sunday, February 28 the same day the Academy Awards will be hosted by Chis Rock.

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