Fantasy Movie League Awards Season Week 1 Picks

UPDATE 12/3 11:30a Pacific Below

How large will the post-Thanksgiving holiday hangover be for the box office?  That seems to be the prevailing question for FML players to consider this week.  Well, that and the merits of a demonic force of ancient evil intent on punishing those lacking the Christmas spirit.  I didn’t even make that up, it’s part of the official plot description.

Before describing the numbers my model came up with this week, I’d like to point  you to a couple of key Chatter threads that might help you make a final decision.

I continue to love Phil’s Phun Phlick’s weekly Fandango check.  Theater counts can be tricky since they don’t show how many times a film is being shown at a particular theater, which is what makes Phil’s work so interesting.  His is a small sample, but I like the fact that he lives in a large enough metro area to have a major university but small enough to lack a major sports team.  That combination seems to be a good barometer for what would be a cumbersome nation-wide analysis.

Also this week there is a nice post on past post-Thanksgiving box office hangovers by N8 Dawg you should definitely read.  The wide appeal movies in particular look ripe for larger than normal drops while more specialized audiences may come out for others.

Week 1 Perfect Combo Probabilities

I write this column on Wednesday evenings so it can run on the main FML site on Thursday morning.  Normally, both ProBoxOffice.com and ShowBuzzDaily forecasts are available by 8p Pacific, I average them, and use them into my model.  This week, however, ShowBuzzDaily didn’t publish its forecast Wednesday so this column relies only on the ProBoxOffice.com forecast but I’ll publish updates on my blog on Thursday when possible since I’ve found it works better with both forecasts.

When I plug the ProBoxOffice numbers into my model, here’s what it comes up with:

Awards Week 1 Probabilities

“Krampus” is by far the favorite for Best Performer and the model output uses it heavily as a result.  Other candidates include “Creed”, “Brroklyn”, “The Good Dinosaur”, “Secret in their Eyes”, and “Mockingjay”, an eclectic group to be sure.  Historically, forecasts for new movies, “Krampus” in our choice list this week” are tricky and as of this writing it has no Rotten Tomatoes reviews so there’s no indicator on what word of mouth might do for it.

Uncharacteristically, ProBoxOffice.com didn’t change from its latest Long Term Forecast for “Krampus” either.  Typically they move one direction or another once they have more detailed social media or review data so that lack of change worries me.  Plus, the trailer doesn’t exactly make you want to run out and see it for all its creepiness.  I could be wrong, but this gives me a very “Jem and the Holograms” kind of vibe.

As I promised a few weeks ago, I’ll go with the top combo on one of my accounts, but in my main “common sense” account, I’m going to take a harder look at “Creed” combinations.  Thursday numbers may cause me to give “Krampus” a second look, but that 5th combination in the table above is looking pretty good to me right about now.  That may change as more data becomes available, so keep an eye out for other professional forecasts available Thursday.

 

UPDATE 12/3 11:30a Pacific

ShowBuzzDaily numbers came in this morning, here’s an updated table:

Awards Week 1 Probabilities v2

No huge changes here, but I remain skeptical on “Krampus”.  There’s a good Chatter thread on Thursday numbers for “Krampus” that might sway you.  Still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, though, so those Thursday numbers might be a higher percentage of the overall gross if bad word of mouth gets out.

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