Fantasy Movie League Awards Season 2016 Week 6 Picks

School is back in session after the holiday break, three new films make their FML debuts, and I’m left wondering whether or not the unpredictability of the Awards season will continue.  Best Performer has come from hard to predict places for each of the last four weeks, but if there’s one Chatter thread you read this week it should be this one that discusses the merits of “The Forest” and “The Big Short”.  Let’s take a look at some statistics for the week with a new feature of this column.

Week 6 Summary Table

I thought I’d try something new this week and, in the name of transparency, provide the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (full table):

Awards Week 6 Summary Table

The PBO and SBD columns come from the ProBoxOffice.com and ShowBuzzDaily (not available Wednesday evening) forecasts this week, which are then averaged. The Value column divides the Average by the FB$ and . In the Value column, the top 6 Best Performer candidates are highlighted.   The Use column applies the average of the Value column to non-forecasted films based on their FB$ and is the full list of what I use in my model.   Week of Release is important because the Best Performer has been later than its 4th week of release only 6 times, although three of the last four.  The PPP Showtimes column is data from the Phil’s Phun Plicks Chatter post on showtimes in his metro area.

Week 6 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model, here’s what it comes up with (full image):

Awards Week 6 Probabilities

It is anticipated that “The Big Short” will add theaters this week, which accounts for its relatively small forecasted drop this week compared to other returning films.  By the math involving the professional forecasts, it has by far the best value this week.  As such, I’ll be playing the top item on my “by the model” account.

However, if you’re looking for a different kind of line up Patrick Reardon, The Box Office Guy, made a great case for “The Forest” in his column this week given numbers from horror films the last several years in January.  To further that cause, the Summary Table shows that the number of showtimes for “The Forest” is larger than the next two films priced above it, so maybe Patrick is onto something.  While that doesn’t guarantee people will come, it shows the upside the film has.  To you maximize “The Forest”, a good play is 1x “The Revenant” + 7x “The Forest”, which is what I’m going to play on my main account since it has some catching up to do.

 

 

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