Fantasy Movie League Awards Season 2016 Week 7 Picks

With the Golden Globes on Sunday and Oscar announcements Thursday, this is the week where this season earns its name.  New releases “Ride Along 2”, “13 Hours : The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi”, and “Norm of the North” have uncertain weekends ahead of them for a variety of reasons while “Spotlight” and “The Revenant” hope to benefit from industry award announcements, whose past fortunes are captured nicely in this thread posted by bswhite1970 earlier in the week.

Infographic Shout Out

I’m a sucker for a good infographic and I wanted to give a shoutout to Nakatomi for sharing the following in a thread late last week showing patterns for Perfect Combinations (PC) prior to Awards Week 6 results:

nakatomi

Last week, for a 5th time, the pattern of a single film followed by seven screens of a Best Performer (BP).  That gives credibility to the strategy of maximizing BP candidates wherever possible to give yourself a chance for the PC.  It also clearly shows that leaving screens empty doesn’t help much since only one time in the history of Fantasy Movie League did leaving even one screen empty result in a PC, and the $5M bonus that comes with it.

Week 7 Summary Table

Returning this week is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (full table):

Awards Week 7 Summary Table v3

 

The PBO and SBD columns come from the ProBoxOffice.com and ShowBuzzDaily forecasts this week, which are then averaged. Note that ShowBuzzDaily only has 4 day forecasts for the three new films, not the returning ones so only the new are used above.  The Value column divides the Average by the FB$. The Use column applies the average of the Value column to non-forecasted films based on their FB$ and is the full list of what I use in my model.   Week of Release is important because the Best Performer has typically been no later than its first month.  The PPP Showtimes column is data, courtesy the kind folks at Gracenote who let me use their showtimes API, from the Phil’s Phun Plicks Chatter post on showtimes in his metro area.

Week 7 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Comparator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (full image):

Awards Week 7 Probabilities v2

There’s an unusual situation here given the Golden Globes results on Sunday, the anticipated Oscar announcements on Thursday, some films are expanding, and the fact that ShowBuzzDaily made 4 day forecasts only for new films and not returning ones.  If you believe ProBoxOffice.com then “Spotlight” is the overwhelming  favorite to take Best Performer (BP) and the $2M per screen bonus, predicting it triple its box office from last week.

Next on the BP candidate list is “The Big Short”, which again my model is relying entirely on ProBoxOffice.com for, which sees roughly a 5% bump.  If you believe in neither of those increases for Oscar contenders, “Alvin and the Chipmunks” is next up for BP.

Finally, if you really, really like “Ride Along 2” despite the forecasts, you have to believe it’ll take in $57M before it makes sense to lead a lineup this week.  If that’s the only number you change in the FML Comparator, for example, you could use “Ride Along 2” + “Daddy’s Home” + 6x “The Big Short”.

As for me, I’m going top play the top combo in the table in my “model only” account and on my main account.  That combination hedges slightly between the two Oscar contenders and gives a good chance for at least some bonus.  With seven weeks to go, anything could happen in the overall standings and there are sure to be some more curveballs along the way.

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