Fantasy Movie League Awards Season Week 8 Picks

The strange-but-true Awards season continues and this week I want to give a shout out to Billion Dollar Cineplex for a great assessment of how the calendar has impacted results:

Dec 18th – Star Wars split
Dec 25th – Christmas
Jan 1st – New Year’s
Jan 8th – Post-New Year’s
Jan 15th – MLK
Jan 22nd – Post-MLK

It was further pointed out by M37 that Super Bowl weekend on Feb 5 will continue the trend of weirdness, which this week moves along with three new films in “The 5th Wave”, “Dirty Grandpa”, and “The Boy”.

Week 8 Summary Table

Here is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (full table):

Awards Week 8 Summary Table

The PBO and SBD columns come from the and ShowBuzzDaily forecasts this week, which are then averaged.  The Value column divides the Average by the FB$. The Use column applies the average of the Value column to non-forecasted films based on their FB$ and is the full list of what I use in my model.   Week of Release is important because the Best Performer has typically been no later than its first month.  The PPP Showtimes column is data, courtesy the kind folks at Gracenote who let me use their showtimes API, from the Phil’s Phun Plicks Chatter post on showtimes in his metro area.

Week 8 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Comparator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (full image):

Awards Week 8 Probabilities

As is always the case after a 4 day weekend, most films are anticipated to drop significantly.  However, given its pricing “13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi” is in for a strong second weekend according to the professional forecasts and, as a result, different combinations using it 5x are strong in my model.

If you are looking for an alternative that’s slightly against the conventional wisdom above, “The Boy” is worth considering among new films.  Horror films have been notoriously undervalued by the professional forecasters and, much like we saw two weeks ago with “The Forest”, $13M might be within reach based on genre alone.  If you choose to go that way, 4x “The Boy” paired with 4x “Sisters” is a nice mix given that the latter has a shot at Best Performer as well.

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