Fantasy Movie League Awards Season Week 13 Picks

UPDATE BELOW 2/25 12:30p Pacific

The weirdest of seasons gets the weirdest of endings as the top 3 in the overall standings are separated by a mere $6.3M, which means that if one of Trent’s Theater, mgmoviegirl, or KM hits the Perfect Cinema this week and the other two do not, this season long battle for the top spot will be decided in this last weekend.  Of course, we’ve seen multiple swings of more than $50M per week between the top weekly score and conventional wisdom, so even 42 Theaters currently sitting in 34th place has a theoretical chance at winning everything.

And it could all rest on the biopic of a British 1980’s ski jumper with Wolverine as his coach.  That’s just as weird as it should be.

Week 13 Summary Table

Here is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (full table):

Awards Week 13 Summary Table

With no forecast from ShowBuzzDaily as of midnight Pacific, the professional forecasts above is just from ProBoxOffice.com  are shown above.  The Value column divides the Average by the FB$. The Use column applies the average of the Value column to non-forecasted films based on their FB$ and is the full list of what I use in my model.   The PPP Showtimes column is data, courtesy the kind folks at Gracenote who let me use their showtimes API, from the Phil’s Phun Plicks Chatter post on showtimes in his metro area.  I like that number because it is often more revealing than theater counts since the latter doesn’t tell you how often a particular theater might be showing a movie.

That math generates a list of Best Performer (BP) candidates that includes “Triple 9”, “The Revnant”, and “How to Be Single”.

Week 13 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Comparator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (full image):

Awards Week 13 Probabilities

First a shout out to Ari for asking me to add the Average value to this output, which is a nice indicator of likely outcome instead of best/worst cases given by the ceiling/floor numbers.

My model likes “Triple 9” x2 + “How to Be Single” x6 even though taking the ProBoxOffice at their face would lean towards “Triple 9” x4 + “The Revenant” x 2 + “Hail Caesar!” x2.  Both combinations give you two shots at Best Performer according to ProBoxOffice.com, but obviously more heavily towards one or the other.

However, if you are looking to make one last swing at the fences, I really like “Eddie the Eagle” this week.  As I mentioned on the podcast, no Hugh Jackman film in the last 10 years has opened below $13M and while the theater count in the low 2,000s should prevent that ceiling (although I like from the Phil numbers that it has nearly as many showings as “Triple 9” with only one fewer location), if it gets up to $10.25M it becomes a contender for Best Performer.  It’ll fit x5 in a lineup and a filler of 3x “Hail, Caeser!” will fit there to fill out your screens, other combinations work as well.

As always, I’ll play the top spot above on my “model only” account, but I’m going for it with my main account, where I’ll play “Eddie the Eagle” x5 + “Hail, Caeser!” x3.

UPDATE 2/25 12:30p Pacific

The ShowBuzzDaily forecast is now out, here’s an updated table (full table):

Awards Week 13 Summary Table-v2

and probabilities (full image):

Awards Week 13 Probabilities-V2

Because ShowBuzzDaily is more pessimistic about “How to Be Single”, it changes the order of pretty much the same combinations discussed earlier.  As such, I’m going to change my “model only” account to the first item in this updated table, but keep my faith in “Eddie the Eagle” on my main account.

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