Fantasy Movie League Spring Season Week 6 Picks

I’m back!  First of all, I’d like to again thank Bill Kitten’s excellent take on Week 5 that ran while I was out.  Her pick turned out to be the most played among the Top 100, indicating that her advice was well received.  If you want to hear more about her experience, she’s the guest on the podcast this week.

Where was I?  Most people assumed some Disney-based location for my vacation, which would ordinarily be a good guess, but instead I was here:

IMG_7287

That’s me in line at the Times Square TKTS booth last Thursday, the only day we didn’t prebuy tickets for.  Eight Broadway shows in six days, including “Hamilton” although sans Lin-Manuel Miranda who took an unannounced night off (it was still beyond awesome).  I could write several thousand words about the week but I fear that only fellow theater lover Angry Geek would read it, so I digress to the usual information found in this column 8).

Week 6 Summary Table

Here is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (full table):

SpringWeek6SummaryTable

The PBO and SBD columns come from the ProBoxOffice.com and ShowBuzzDaily forecasts this week, which are then averaged.  The Value column divides the Average by the FB$. The Use column applies the average of the Value column to non-forecasted films based on their FB$ and is the full list of what I use in my model.   The PPP Showtimes column is data, courtesy the kind folks at Gracenote who let me use their showtimes API, from the Phil’s Phun Phlicks Chatter post on showtimes in his metro area (Louisville, KY).  Week of Release shows how many weeks a film has been in theaters, the key number there being that beyond week 5, movies get difficult to forecast.

All that yields Best Performer candidates as “Hardcore Henry”, “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2”, “Allegiant”, and “God’s Not Dead 2”.

Week 6 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Comparator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (full image):

SpringWeek6Probabilities

My model likes the professionally forecasted top combination this week, which is “Hardcore Henry” x4, “Allegiant” x2 and “London Has Fallen” x2. Phil started a great thread on the prospects of “Hardcore Henry” that everyone should read who is considering playing this combination, as a good case is made by M37 and others for action movies opening with more than 3000 theaters bringing in at least $10M.

If, however, you like “Allegiant” you could go with “Zootopia”, “Hardcore Henry”, and 6x “Allegiant”.  Similarly, if you like “Big Fat Greek Wedding 2” you could play it six times with some low end fillers or maybe you like “God’s Not Dead 2” to have a strong hold, in which case you can play it seven times.

Those latter three lineups are a little to risky for me given the number of screens that would rely on a single film.  I always like betting on new films since they are harder for the pros to forecast and have more potential upside.  The research the community has done on “Hardcore Harry” seems pretty solid to me and despite the “Blair Witch” motion sickness it would induce upon on me personally, I’ll be playing that top row in the table on both of my accounts this week.

I want to give a special thanks to everyone out there in the community who has supported me since I started writing about this crazy, addictive game we all love.  I had the highest page views ever on my blog last Thursday and I suspect it was because people went there looking for this column in case I decided to publish something, like I did during my vacation in December.  That made me smile.

I’ll echo what several podcast guests have said: part of the reason I like this game so much is how generally positive the players are with each other.  We have our collective moments of badness, but in the Internet era the level of decency we typically have with one another despite a less than stellar forum interface is kind of a miracle.  So, thanks however it is you might contribute to that and have fun watching what happens this week.

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