Fantasy Movie League Spring Season Week 8 Picks

As long time readers of this space know, I’m a huge fan of the showtime analysis that Phil’s Phun Phlicks does and behind the scenes beginning in about November I’ve been helping him with some software that eases the showtime counting he was previously doing by looking up various Fandango pages himself.  If you’ve been active in the Chatter this week, you may have noticed discussions around taking Phil’s idea further to include markets beyond his native Louisville and I’m happy to announce that I completed the first step towards that today.

NielsenTop10plus1

You can see this for yourself on the new showtimes.fmlnerd.com site I created as well as the per city breakdown in the 10 cities used so far.  I’ll largely leave the analysis to others, primarily Phil, but I would like to thank those of you who participated in the Chatter thread where I asked for help identifying ZIP codes and radii to use for each city.  I’ll be asking for more help while expanding this to 30 cities soon and Phil will be revealing the data each week as he did before.

And, finally, I’d like to thank the nice people at Gracenote for letting me use their API, which allows me to obtain this data in the first place.

Now onto the week at hand . . .

Week 8 Summary Table

Here is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (full table):

SpringWeek8SummaryTable

The PBO and SBD columns come from the ProBoxOffice.com and ShowBuzzDaily forecasts this week, which are then averaged.  The Value column divides the Average by the FB$. The Use column applies the average of the Value column to non-forecasted films based on their FB$ and is the full list of what I use in my model.   The PPP Showtimes column comes from the aforementioned showings table.  Week of Release shows how many weeks a film has been in theaters, the key number there being that beyond week 5, movies get difficult to forecast.

All that yields Best Performer candidates as “Compadres”, “Batman v Superman”,  and “Zootopia”.

Week 8 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Comparator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (full image):

SpringWeek8Probabilities

The one number in the Top 10+1 Nielsen Cities table that is worth considering is the show count for “Compadres”.  In Phil’s normal Wednesday report this film had zero showings and with Louisville not exactly being a Spanish-speaking hotbed this makes complete sense.  A more diverse set of cities, however, reveals more showings than “Miracles from Heaven” and almost as many as “Eye in the Sky” despite appearing in 22 fewer theaters in the 11 city sample size.  Combine that with the ProBoxOffice forecast that it will get over $1M and it becomes a strong BP candidate to the extent that you could justify playing it on 5 or 6 of your screens.  If you need further convincing, I highly recommend reading the thread started by CCR that makes the case for “Compadres”.

I think the pros are discounting “Barbershop” a little too much, predicting a 45% drop when it’s predecessors did closer to 40% and there’s a good chance for a strong hold for “Jungle Book”, so I like the top lineup from my model this week for both my accounts.

If you think that’s a bit aggressive, though, you can play “Compadres” 5x along with “Zootopia” x2 and “Jungle Book” to have a lineup that has as high a floor and ceiling as what the model likes best.

If “Compadres” scares you, there are a few lineups in the table above should you feel better about “Batman v Superman” (in its tricky 5th week of release) or our new film with high risk/reward “The Huntsman: Winter’s War”.

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