Fantasy Movie League Spring Season Week 9 Picks

Have you ever gone outside just before it’s about to rain?  There’s a heavy, tensioned humidity that hangs in the air.  Maybe a harsh wind blows that bites you with cold, even through your clothes.  Anticipation.

That’s what we have this week, before what will surely be split days for “Captain America: Civil War” beginning May 6.  In anticipation of that, we have three new films, at least two film expansions, and a slate of returning films for a challenging week of selections that triple dog dares us to consider “Batman v Superman”.

Week 9 Summary Table

Here is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (full table):

SpringWeek9SummaryTable

he PBO and SBD columns come from the ProBoxOffice.com and ShowBuzzDaily forecasts this week, which are then averaged.  The Value column divides the Average by the FB$. The Use column applies the average of the Value column to non-forecasted films based on their FB$ and is the full list of what I use in my model.  Week of Release shows how many weeks a film has been in theaters, the key number there being that beyond week 5, movies get difficult to forecast.  After we collectively discovered that Thursday numbers on showtimes are much better than Wednesdays, I no longer put Phil’s showtimes findings in the table above, but be on the lookout in the Chatter for those.

All that yields Best Performer candidates as “Batman v Superman”, “Zootopia”, and “The Jungle Book”.

Week 9 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Comparator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (full image):

SpringWeek9Probabilities

Despite the upside that Austin and I discussed on the podcast, “Keanu” was downgraded by ProBoxOffice.com to $15M from its Long Range Forecast of $20M, typically not a good sign.  They like “Batman v Superman” to drop less than 33%, “Zootopia” to drop just over 16% despite the introduction of another animated film this week and there is no forecast at all for “Compadres”.  Plus, my modeling gets fooled a bit when low end movies have the same price, but it seems pretty safe to conclude that “Compadres” will do better than “Eye in the Sky” shown above.

The pro forecasts suggest that the best lineup should be anchored by “Jungle Book” for the third week in a row followed by three screens of “Batman v Superman” and four screens of “Compadres”.   However, the fate of “Compadres” depends hugely on its theater count and, more importantly, its showtime count so as to indicate its upper limit.

If you do not believe in “Batman v Superman” leveling off a bit this week, your next best bet is likely “Zootopia” for Best Performer in which case one screen of “Keanu”, 6x “Zootopia”, and one of several low end fillers is the play for you.

That leaves me feeling a lot less certain on Wednesday than I have in quite some time.  With current information, I like what the model suggests since “Batman v Superman” appears to have finally seen a knee in its drop curve and if “Compadres” has a showtime count in the neighborhood of 5oo compared to its 744 in the top 20 Nielsen markets plus one from last week I’d be inclined to stick with the lineup the model suggests.  But should that number drop, I’d go looking for another low end filler.

So watch for the results of the showtimes report in the Chatter and act accordingly.

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