Fantasy Movie League Spring Season Week 10 Picks

There are a lot of special circumstances this weekend to consider, right?  For only the fourth time in FML history, we have a split film to consider in “Captain America: Civil War”.  Up until now, Friday has been the go to day for split films in their opening weekend, but with such a small sample size, can we really think of that as a trend?  Plus, the FML pricing Gods know this too, so could they be messing with us?

Even with a split “Civil War”, there only appear to be four tops to our lineups to consider this week.  “Civil War” Friday, 2x “Civil War” Sunday, Saturday and Sunday, or “Civil War” Saturday + “Jungle Book”.  With some great Chatter threads on the “Drive-in effect” that may help “Jungle Book” (as proposed by Ari) and and the Buena Vista trickle-down that may also give it or “Zootopia” a boost (as discussed by bswhite1970), it’s hard to say which of those tops is the best way to go.

By the way, did you know Mother’s Day is on Sunday?  And did you know “Mother’s Day” is a horrible movie, with a 8% Rotten Tomatoes rating?  But it also has more national TV ads than any movie I’ve tracked ads for, which is admittedly not many yet (which I’ll fix soon) but still that trailer has been on TVs more than Star Wars.  Can it buy a sentimental audience and be a leading contender for a low end filler?

There are lots of special circumstances to consider, so let’s get to some data.

Week 10 Summary Table

Here is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (full table):

SpringWeek10SummaryTable

The PBO column come from the ProBoxOffice.com forecast this week (ShowBuzzDaily was not available as of 8:30p Pacific on Wed), which this week was carried through to the Use column.  The Value column divides the Use by the FB$. The Use column applies the average of the Value column to non-forecasted films based on their FB$ and is the full list of what I use in my model.  Week of Release shows how many weeks a film has been in theaters, the key number there being that beyond week 5, movies get difficult to forecast.

All that yields Best Performer candidates as “Mother’s Day”, “Ratchet & Clank”, and “Keanu”.

Week 10 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Comparator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (full image):

SpringWeek10Probabilities

Both the summary table and the model output assume a distribution of “Civil War” box office according to its FML pricing.  Count me in the “Always Friday” camp when it comes to opening weekends of split films.  There’s just too much upside to ignore compared to the other two days and the cost distribution would have to be larger than the 46%/30%/24% split it is now for me to consider going elsewhere.

ProBoxOffice.com loves “Mother’s Day”.  The risk there is that the floor for this film is pretty low given that its Rotten Tomatoes consensus review starts as follows, “Arguably well-intended yet thoroughly misguided . . .”  I wish I made that up for comedic effect, but that’s a literal copy/paste.  Despite this, I’m taking “Civil War” Friday and 7x “Mother’s Day” on both of my accounts.

If, however, you hate the idea of “Mother’s Day” consider Saturday + Sunday + 7x “Ratchet and Clank”.  It didn’t get much attention of my model and hasn’t had nearly the same amount of discussion on the Chatter as some other low end fillers like “Zootopia”, “Keanu”, or “The Huntsman”, but even if it drops 42% it is the next best option should “Mother’s Day” falter and you are willing to not use a Friday “Civil War”.  Then again, if it fails to hit that, the floor on this play is low without the Best Performer bonus.  Something to think about for you non-“Mother’s Day” believers.

 

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