Spring 2016 Week 10 Extrapolation Analysis

This idea of extrapolating performance off of showtimes got some decent traffic last week, so I decided to do it again this week.  First, let’s see how we did last week:

Week9ShowtimesDerivative-Review

It’s a small sample size, so be cautious about reading too much into this yet, but of the 10 films we had enough data to extrapolate off of, 8 of them correctly predicted whether or not a particular film would under or over perform (green for overs, red for unders), which would be awesome if that held over the long run.  There was one false positive (Compadres) and one false negative (Batman vs Superman, which happened to be Best Performer) and all of that was based on a 21 city sample.  Plus, drawing a random line in the sand, if a film had a “Needed $/Show” of more than $600, it didn’t meet expectations unless it had IMAX/3D showings to boost itself.

This week, the showtimes report is based on a 41 city sample with the hope that we a better fit on the “Needed $/Show” metric by increasing our sample size.  The “Last Week Delta” is a little weird since last week was based on a different sample size, but let’s throw caution to the wind and go for it anyway:

Week10ShowtimesDerivative

The “Needed $/Show” number for “Civil War” is through the roof, but it has so many IMAX and 3D showings that it may not matter.  These numbers doesn’t look as good for “Mother’s Day” as anticipated, but my podcast comments about “Keanu” and “Ratchet and Clank” are supported by these numbers.  I’m cautiously optimistic about this given the first week results, but we’ll see how this plays out.

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