Spring 2016 Week 11 Extrapolation Analysis

With 4 WordPress pages, 23 podcast episodes, and this my 73rd blog post this is my 100th piece of Fantasy Movie League podcast!

Thanks to everyone for all the support and lively conversation.  I still feel like this game is in its infancy and the group think has made it all a lot more enjoyable for everyone.

This is the third article in this series and let’s again start by looking at how things went last week:


In the review of Week 9 I published last week, this methodology predicted whether or not a film would exceed or fail to reach its averaged ProBoxOffice.com and ShowBuzzDaily forecasts 8 times out of 10.  This week was not quite as successful, with 6 out of 12 films predicted correctly.

Was that because the Week 10 weekend was so weird with “Mother’s Day” and “Civil War” causing unusual behavior?  Or is this methodology not as helpful as a review of its first weekend indicated?

I have no idea, but let’s not allow that to stop us from trying.  Here is the data for this week (with an extra column pasted from above in “LW Actual $/show” and a new title for what is now the “Derivative” column:

Week11ShowtimesDerivativeIf my premise is correct, and I’m not quite convinced yet that it is, only “Ratchet and Clank” and “Batman v Superman” will fail to meet their forecasts this week. This data doesn’t tell us much yet about what larger numbers mean since “Keanu” scored a 50%+ showtimes derivative last week and failed to live up to expectations, so we can’t necessarily imply anything about “Civil War” and its 48% showtimes derivative this week.

Still, these numbers make me feel better about any of the all Disney lineups discussed in my picks column this week. We’ll see how it all plays out on Monday.

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