Fantasy Movie League 2016 Summer Week 1 Picks

New season, new prizes, new movies!

A year ago, Fantasy Movie League launched and what has grown since is a thriving community at the intersection of fantasy sports and movie fandom.  How fun has this been?  Tons.  Did you ever think you’d be anxious to hear Thursday returns for a Johnny Depp live action adaptation sequel?  A lot of us will.

Let’s get right to the math and get this new season off on the right foot.

Week 1 Summary Table

Back by popular demand, here is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (full table):

2016SummerWeek1SummaryTable

The PBO column came from the ProBoxOffice.com forecast this week and the SBD from ShowBuzzDaily.  The math was a little tricky there this week since ShowBuzzDaily didn’t give Fri-Mon forecasts, but I extrapolated accordingly and took averages in the Ave column.  The Use column applies the average of the Value column to non-forecasted films based on their FB$ and is the full list of what I use in my model. The Value column divides the Use by the FB$.

Week 1 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Comparator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (full image):

2016SummerWeek1WinProbabilities

Despite the release of “X-Men: Apocalypse” the pros and my model like the price point for “Civil War”, with 6 screens of it winning just over 60% of the simulations I ran.  However, “The Nice Guys” stands a bit alone in the market for a slightly older audience who may not be into a family oriented movie over the long holiday and if you think it can to $8M, all other forecasts staying equal, it becomes a strong BP candidate.  Going all in on it, which might be risky this early in the season, would have you taking a look at using it six times with a single “Civil War” and a single “Alice”.

I’m playing it conservative, using the top selection in the model results on my “model only” account and the second one, which also happens to be the top pick if you go strictly by the average of the pro forecasts without adding any variance on my main account.  Good luck to everyone on what promises to be a fun 2016 Summer Season!

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