Fantasy Movie League 2016 Summer Week 2 Picks

In the wake of a week that saw big predictive change once Thursday theater counts came out, we have a short week that appears to have an obvious Best Performer candidate.  Or do we?

Remember that time you started a home improvement project on the Friday before a 3 day weekend and though you’d be done in plenty of time to go to the movies on Monday?  Welcome to my reality where I just finished a closet remodel minutes before starting to write this article.  Hence the very short analysis this week to go along with the significant stats we know about as of Wednesday evening.

Week 2 Summary Table

To start things off, here is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (full table):

THURSDAY UPDATE.  Ari found an error in my original table, fixed below.  There are no changes to interpreting the model as a result of this error.

2016SummerWeek2SummaryTableV2

The PBO column came from the ProBoxOffice.com forecast this week and the SBD from ShowBuzzDaily.   The Use column applies the average of the Value column to non-forecasted films based on their FB$, averages the pro forecasts where possible, and is the full list of what I use in my model. The Value column divides the Use by the FB$.

Week 2 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Comparator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (full image):

2016SummerWeek2WinProbabilities

The pros disagree quite a bit on TMNJ, but with its high price, that doesn’t really matter. Even if you plug in the ShowBuzzDaily numbers for it and “Me Before You”, Khaleesi in love is the heavy Best Performer favorite.  There are scenarios where “Civil War” and “Angry Birds” can take the bonus, but an overwhelming number of the simulations favor the new Emilia Clarke film in its first week of release.

As we saw last week, though, showtime and theater numbers that come out on Thursday can bring a surprise.  I doubt we’ll know a whole lot about the weekend form the Thursday night preview numbers as the TMNJ number promises to be big while the “Me Before You” performance won’t tell us much either way.  Keep an eye on the chatter for those, otherwise you’re likely looking at arguments over what low end fillers should be this week, which might even include an expanding “Love & Friendship” in addition to the combinations above.

 

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