Fantasy Movie League 2016 Summer Week 10 Picks

After a big shakeup week that saw a small release, “Absolutely Fabulous”, take Best Performer and then disappear from the Fantasy Movie League slate we get a week with three new wide releases and another two small ones to contend with.  Last week saw slightly more than a $24M different between the most popular cineplex and the perfect one, which produced some shakeup in many leagues and contests.  Will we see something similar this week as Matt Damon brings us “Jason Bourne” to over 4,000 theaters?

Week 10 Summary Table

As always, here is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (full table):

2016SummerWeek10SummaryTable

Week 10 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Comparator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (full image):

2016SummerWeek10WinProbabilities

The first thing that comes to mind when looking at the ProBoxOffice.com and ShowBuzzDaily forecasts is, what happened to “Jason Bourne”?  As recently as Saturday’s Long Range Forecast from ProBoxOffice, it was pegged at a $65M and now, after a theater count reveal of more than 4,000 they have it below $50M?

If this season has shown us anything, it’s that sequel fatigue has set in with the public, big time.  That said, I don’t remember (and I’m sure someone will correct me if I’m wrong) a drop from an LRF to the first weekend forecast as large as that.  Reviews aren’t great, it’s sitting at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes as I type, but that seems like an awfully large plunge.

Not that it matters much, though.  With its pricing and assuming other films keep their forecasts, it would have to get in the low $70Ms to make sense as an anchor this week.

What the pros love, instead, are “Bad Moms” and “Nerve”, the latter of which had a rare Wednesday opening so by the time you read this on the main FML site Thursday there will be plenty of Chatter posts interpreting its first full day of business.  Their pricing allows you to hedge on them this week as the pro average best line up is the same as what my model found, “Bad Moms” x3, “Nerve” x2, “Mike & Dave” x2, and “Captain Fantastic”.

Should “Nerve” post terrible Wednesday numbers and if you’re scared off of “Bad Moms” by the review embargo that typically signals badness, “Ice Age” might have a strong 2nd week hold after a disappointing opening weekend.  It fits on seven screens and would have high risk/reward.  Slightly less so would be “Star Trek” x2 and “Tarzan” x6 if those first three best performer candidates all falter.

I anticipate a large number of players on that top combination in my table, though, given how the forecasts have played out this week.  The biggest unknowns are the two smaller releases “Cafe Society” and “Captain Fantastic”.  Keep a close eye on theater counts for both.  The latter would have to get to $1.8M to be a BP threat like “AbFab” was last week.  “Cafe Society”, though, has a tougher road because of its higher price and would need to get to $4.5.

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