Fantasy Movie League 2016 Summer Week 12 Picks

Will this week be ruled by nostalgia (“Petes Dragon”) or pushing boundaries (“Sausage Party”)?  Might returning films caught in the wake of “Suicide Squad” last week see softer drops this week now that the hype has subsided?  What kind of impact will the first full weekend of Olympic coverage have on the overall weekend?

All these questions are worth considering in another well priced Fantasy Movie League week as we get close to the end of the Summer season.

Week 12 Summary Table

As always, here is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (full table):

2016SummerWeek12SummaryTable

The Use column is an average of the ProBoxOffice and ShowBuzzDaily forecasts for those films that have them. For those that do not, the average value of the forecasted films is applied to the FB$ to obtain an estimate.

Week 12 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Comparator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (full image):

2016SummerWeek12WinProbabilities

Note that now all the output from my model is available on the newly launched FML Nerd Analyzer along with other tools and data that will continue to be updated.

The first eye opener when looking at the week is the huge difference between what ProBoxOffice and ShowBuzzDaily think about the fortunes of “Suicide Squad”.  If you believe ShowBuzzDaily and its generous sub -50% drop, the comic book film is the runaway Best Performer that you’d likely pair with one screen of “Secret Life of Pets”.  If ProBoxOffice is right it’ll challenge “Florence Foster Jenkins” for Worst Performer.  Needless to say, I don’t recall the pros being this divided on a film in the year I’ve been writing this column and I plan on splitting the difference at $51M.

The next thing to consider is the Olympics and the last time the movie business had a full weekend of Games to contend with was the weekend of August 3-5, 2012 during which the Top 12 movies of that weekend fell roughly 10% compared to the weekend before and all movies were down 8%.  Based on it being later in August, though, I’d expect the drop off to be more than that for the overall market size for this weekend.

My model likes “Secret Life of Pets” and “Sausage Party” and I see why given how strong the holds have been on the former to go along with the buzz of the latter.  Leaving a blank screen as the model suggests, though, is always risky.  It’s much safer to go with the third result in the output table above, which hedges a bit with “Ghostbusters” and, in what will likely be its last chance to get into a Perfect Cinema, “Finding Dory”.

I’m leaning that way, but if you far feeling even more nostalgic for late 70s and early 80s films than I am, you can pair “Pete’s Dragon” and “Star Trek” together as well.  Thursday previews won’t help much this week given that there won’t be any for “Pete’s Dragon” and there aren’t any decent comps for “Sausage Party” with its uniqueness as an R-rated animated film.

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