Fantasy Movie League 2016 Summer Week 13 Picks

The Olympics close this week, more and more schools are back in session, and Labor Day approaches meaning that Summer is almost over.  Here at Fantasy Movie League, we have only two weeks left to crown a 2016 Summer Champion, who will win a trip to Universal Studios – Hollywood.  As a SoCal local, I’ll make a trip there myself over the weekend and report back on what our winner will get to experience, but before that there’s some business to attend to with Week 13.

Week 13 Summary Table

As always, here is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (see the full table at http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/model):

2016SummerWeek13SummaryTable

The Use column is an average of the ProBoxOffice and ShowBuzzDaily forecasts for those films that have them. For those that do not, the average value of the forecasted films is applied to the FB$ to obtain an estimate.

Week 13 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Lineup Calculator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (see the full output at http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/model):

2016SummerWeek13WinProbabilities

If you believe the pros this week, the two week rule that will keep the theater count high for “Pete’s Dragon” will guide it to Best Performer, making it worthy of five screens in your cineplex.  If it’s screen count tomorrow scares you off, alternatively, “Secret Life of Pets” will likely keep its long tail and continue to drop in the -20%’s again causing the bold to play it on six screens.

But, as we all know, the pros have had a rough summer and some other possibilities are worth considering if you think the Disney remake about a dragon will fall below $12.3M, giving some other films a chance.  I think both “War Dogs” and “Kubo and the Two Strings” have a chance to get to $17M this weekend, making the latter a more attractive play because of its lower price and better reviews that could generate word of mouth.  Should “Pete” fall to $12.3M and “Kubo” get to that $17M, three screens of it with “Secret Life of Pets” make for a nice top half of a line up that can be filled with a “Star Trek” and 3x “Nerve”.

The pricing on “Pete” is very tough to beat this week and I wish there were some more variations at play, but I think we may be in for a low end filler contest this week unless it absolutely sinks.  I can’t bring myself to play “Nine Lives” under any circumstances, so as much as I don’t like to play fading horror films, I’ll likely substitute “Lights Out” for the cat choice in my model output.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s