Fantasy Movie League 2016 Fall Week 1 Picks

First off, congratulations to 2016 Summer Season winner Billion Dollar Cineplex!  Be sure to check out my interview with him on the podcast.  One of the original players, he’s been competitive the entire time and really knows his stuff.

Podcasts listeners might recall that Patrick and I had a wager on the season where the loser would have to post an embarrassing childhood picture of themselves.  Somehow, in prodding Patrick about a famed yet missing Ewok picture of him, an Insider Twitterfest of similar pictures lit up the Internet on Tuesday.  So, with some love for Alec Blome as Baby Gracy and Todd M. Thatcher and his living near a bridge in the 80s, I give you mine even though I won the season-long wager with Patrick:

SWxmas77

Christmas Day ’77 in the “Jedi Knight Suit” Santa brought me that my mom discussed on the Mother’s Day edition of the podcast.  I’m not so sure about that lightsaber grip (and that hilt isn’t exactly authentic, although the only thing available that first holiday season after the original hit theaters), but this is proof that I once had hair.  No seven year old has ever been as determined to defeat the Dark Side of the Force and I hadn’t even seen Emperor Palpatine yet 8).

Ahh, the Carter years.  But I digress . . .

Week 1 Summary Table

As always, here is the summary table that I use to assess the results of my model (see the full table at http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/model):

2016FallWeek1SummaryTable

Week 1 Perfect Combo Probabilities

When I plug the Use column into my model (which are also loaded in to the FML Lineup Calculator for your use), here’s what it comes up with (see the full output at http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/model):

2016FallWeek1WinProbabilities

No weekend prediction from ShowBuzzDaily this week, only from ProBoxOffice.com, which likes “Hell or High Water”.  With good reason, given that the Best Performer from two weeks ago is getting a healthy theater expansion this week to just over 1,300 theaters.  It is the strongest contender for BP this week and might be worth six screens on your cineplex.

Another significant factor to consider is that “Finding Dory” comes back to over 2,000 theaters this week. That figures to put a dent in the ceilings of “Kubo”, “Secret Life of Pets”, and “Pete’s Dragon”, which you might otherwise consider as anchors.

The wild card for the week figures to be “Southside With You”, the dramatization of the first date of the First Couple.  I’d still look at its theater count and showings count come Thursday afternoon, but it would have to make over $3.5M to make a run at “Hell or High Water”.  That might be too high a bar to reach, but you never know.

If you are looking to lead off the Fall season with some outside the box thinking, “Bad Moms” might be worth considering.  It dropped less than 30% last week and won’t face the same competition for family audiences that “Dory” will challenge.  The second combination on the model output above makes use of it on seven screens and pairs it with “Suicide Squad”.

Be sure to brush up on all the different prizes up for grabs this season and good luck to everyone over the long weekend!

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