As the Awards season mercifully winds down to its final rounds, we see just how wildly value can swing from week to week. “Hidden Figures” took Best Performer last week with a value of $43.2K and it’s not inconceivable that the BP winner this week could be three times that. Tom Brady is just that powerful, apparently.
What About New Films?
With the NFL season in the rear view mirror, larger movie releases return this week with three films that have very different audiences and two of them threatening in excess of $40M opening weekends.
Who doesn’t like “The Lego Movie”? Everything was indeed awesome in the 2014 semi-surprise that spawned not quite a sequel but certainly a relative in “The Lego Batman Movie”. I’m literally playing the original “Lego Batman” on my refurbished Wii right now and while I don’t expect the film version to have a whole lot in common with the game, popularity of this genre of entertainment continues to be strong. ProBoxOffice.com has the Long Range Forecast for this one at $80M.
On the flip side of that, I turned off “50 Shades of Grey” I was getting for free on hotel HBO while on a road trip last year. Then again, I did not read the novels on which this series and am not exactly in their wheelhouse demographically. The LRF here is at $$46M and I don’t expect this one to pull an audience much broader than the one it has built in.
In between the two extremes and maybe with the most potential to surprise is the “Jon Wick: Chapter 2”. The LRF on this one is only $24.5M but $30M and an indicator of a Keanu Reeves resurgence wouldn’t surprise me, even if I’m among those who will always see him as Theodore Logan.
What are the Combos to Watch this week?
If you apply the latest Long Range Forecast to the three new films that have them you get an average value of a very low $105K and applying that to all films in play this week without Long Range Forecasts yields the default setting for the Lineup Calculator this week. CCR set his bonus bar at $130K this week and if you move up his BP Contenders and Upper Mid Tier movies, a few combinations shake out (full table):
The real question this week is, do you play “Lego Batman” on one screen, “50 Shades” on two, or “John Wick” on four? CCR likes “Hidden Figures”, “La La Land”, “Split”, and “Lion” as fillers, but I lean towards the family friendly here as this weekend falls after the Super Bowl but before Valentine’s Day. Early pro estimates disagree with me, but watch my weekly thread for more updates as they become available.