Fantasy Movie League 2016 Awards Week 13 Combos to Watch

Have you noticed that Fantasy Movie League has no off season?  I have begun to and will be taking a break from writing a weekly column during the upcoming Spring season.  Alec and friends done a phenomenal job in taking the podcasting world to fun places and there are plenty of other folks who supply great weekly content, but after 18 months of what has become a weekly grind I need to free some brain cycles for a little while.

I’ll continue to play and update software, though, so you won’t have to give up that addiction cold turkey 8).

Don’t forget, it’s not too late to play the Fantasy Awards League, the Oscars special game going on right now.  With a very different scoring system, it takes a different way to think about how to stack up your eight screens and $1000 Fantasy Bux.

What About New Films?

With the Oscars this weekend and the expectation that nominated films will get a ton of mindshare, we do actually have three new films to consider this week.  All have had pretty consistent ProBoxOffice Long Range Forecasts (full graph).

awardsweek13lrf

The lone film that could make a box office impact should be “Get Out” from Universal based on the premise that you can never underestimate the power of horror movie fans.  “Collide” is priced to be the Triple Dog Dare of the week, but keep in mind that it was originally scheduled to debut in October of 2015 but didn’t because of the bankruptcy at Relativity Media.  Open Road Films picked it up, I’m sure on the cheap, and is now trying to see if it can get any revenue out of it.  Finally, “Rock Dog” is based on a graphic novel written and illustrated by a Chinese rock star, which may be all you need to know about it.

What are the Combos to Watch this week?

If you apply the latest Long Range Forecast to the three new films that have them you get an average value of a very low $83.1K and applying that to all films in play this week without Long Range Forecasts  yields the default setting for the Lineup Calculator this week.  CCR set his bonus bar at $85K this week and if you move up his BP Contenders and Upper Mid Tier movies, a few combinations shake out (full table):

2016awardsweek13

The first thing you need to figure out this week is how you feel about “Collide”.  It has a solid cast and a low success threshold given its pricing, but a dubious financial history that may result in very little marketing.  If you believe in it, it fits with varying “Get Out” and “Lego Batman” anchors.

If you’re not buying, “Collide” though, maybe you think that the other action movie in the market will be immune to Oscar hype this weekend.  That might tempt you to go all in on “John Wick 2”, which fits in the always risky eight screen configuration in what would be a high risk, high reward play.

My teenage daughter saw “La La Land” on Monday and, as a hard core Broadway fan, expected to hate it since Hollywood is typically more interested in casting names instead of talented singers in modern movie musicals. Instead, like seemingly everybody else, she came away absolutely loving it (in spite of catching both leads watching their own feet during dance numbers) and if you think that sentiment will be common for the weekend (the loving, not the feet watching), there are a number of three, four, or even five screen “La La Land” combinations worth considering.  As has been a topic on the Chatter, theater counts will be a huge deal for this one though given how long it has been in the market now.

Keep a close eye on the pro forecasts as they come out and on Phil’s showtime report.  For this final week of the Awards Season, those metrics will be as important as ever.

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